🔗 Share this article

Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster should join the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."