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Initially, Trump appeared to embrace a strong approach on Ukraine. Following issuing warnings of "serious repercussions" last August if Russia's president continued hindering peace discussions, Trump finally enacted substantial penalties on Russia's biggest energy firms, Rosneft and Lukoil. This move seriously hindered Putin's capability to fund his aggression in Ukraine.

But, via his newly presented detailed peace proposal for Ukraine, reportedly created by American and Russian diplomats excluding Ukrainian or EU involvement, Trump has clearly returned to his favorable to Russia position.

Favoring Military Action

Trump's proposal would effectively benefit Putin for occupying Ukraine while putting the country's political freedom in jeopardy. Despite bold proclamations that "Ukraine's independence will be upheld", large portions of the plan actually undermine that very independence. This constitutes a Russian ideal would probably be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Showing his real-estate experience, the former president continues to treat the war as a mere border issue, implying ceding Russia a portion of Ukraine's land will satisfy the ruler. However, Russia's invasion is not simply about controlling a charred region of industrial-devastated territory in the Donbas region. Rather, it is about the nation's democracy – and the Russian leader's clear desire to weaken it so it ceases to serves as an enticing example for the Russian people of the accountable government that his growing authoritarian rule denies them.

Territorial Surrenders

While maintaining in place the already divided regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the proposal would compel Ukraine to surrender all of Donetsk region. In addition to rewarding Russia with area that its forces have been unsuccessful to seize in more than a decade of fighting, this giveaway would leave Ukraine's defenses critically weakened.

The area is the place of Ukraine's much-vaunted "defensive line", the fortified protective structures that constitute a key impediment to enemy progress. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military leave these fortifications, providing Russian forces a unobstructed way to the capital if he later choose to renew the war.

Military Restrictions

Furthermore, in a move that would enable future fighting more feasible for Russia, Trump would require the nation to cut the numbers of its military from their current 800,000 to 850,000 troops to a limit of six hundred thousand. Significantly, Trump's plan imposes no similar restrictions on the invading army.

Seemingly as a concession to Russia's efforts to depict the nation's legitimate government as extremists, the proposal declares: "All radical doctrine and practices must be opposed and banned." Seemingly to emphasize this element, it insists that "The nation will hold democratic votes in this period" of a truce. However, Trump imposes no condition that Putin risk his regime by conducting democratic processes in his own country.

Security Guarantees

Admittedly, the initiative includes Russia pledge not to "attack neighboring countries" and to "establish in legislation its position of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine". However considering that the Russian leadership has violated similar treaties in the past – including the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia committed to recognize Ukraine's sovereignty in exchange for giving up its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow promised to a halt in fighting and a handback of captured territory in eastern Ukraine to Ukrainian control – how should anyone trust this commitment this time?

For this reason Ukraine has been so insistent on international protection assurances. Although the plan promises a "strong joint military response" should Russia resume its invasion, and states that "The nation will receive dependable security guarantees", the details include fuzzy to concerning. The initiative would not only deny the nation accession to NATO but also prevent alliance nations from positioning military personnel on Ukrainian territory, thus precluding the peacekeeping contingent, likely led by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to prevent Putin from rebuilding his weakened forces, rearming, and reinvading.

International Reaction

Another supplementary accord reportedly would offer the nation with a alliance-like protection assurance, in which any later "serious, intentional, and continuous armed attack" by Russia on Ukraine "will be treated as an act of war jeopardizing the stability and safety of the allied countries." This implies a defense action. But in contrast to a powerful Ukrainian military – Ukraine's best deterrent against additional Russian aggression – the effectiveness of the supplementary deal would hinge on the willingness of Nato leaders, like the US administration, to act with force to Putin's aggression, a response they have {not